The price of steel rose by nearly 300 yuan a day, and the industry said it was incomprehensible
Release Time： 2022-08-18 11:26
“Such a steel price is really incomprehensible. "Sheng Zhicheng, the information director of "Nishimoto Shinkansen" who has many years of experience in the steel market, exclaimed repeatedly on the phone. On August 3, the first day of the opening of the steel market in August, the ton price of construction steel in the Shanghai market rose by nearly 300 yuan a day.
Not long ago, on the day when the statistics of domestic steel production in June were released, Zhu Junhong, general manager of the "My Steel" information agency, sent a text message to the reporter saying: "Under the financial crisis, steel production has hit a record high. All-time high, which is amazing. ”
Under the circumstances of "intensive" price hikes by steel mills, "collective" push up by traders, and "forward-looking" boost in steel futures, calm market participants found that market demand has not Keeping up with the enthusiasm of "price increase", the social inventory is running at a high level, and the phenomenon that steel has been "untouched" in the warehouse but has been handed over three times has been heard. The high output, high inventory, and high steel price of the steel industry "the three highs meet", we need to be alert to the familiar "closed eyes and crazy".
As long as there is room for profit, the production wheel of China's steel industry will spin at high speed. Due to the high degree of industrial dispersion, every steel mill thinks that "as long as I turn faster than others, I can seize the market opportunity". From the perspective of the industry as a whole, it is very easy to cause disorder and distortion.
When the data on domestic steel production in June this year was released, market participants exclaimed. Statistics show that with the recovery of domestic steel prices, domestic steel production has begun to be gradually released. In May, the average daily output of crude steel reached 1.4987 million tons, the highest monthly level since the second half of 2008; in June, crude steel output reached 49.4247 million tons. , a new record for monthly output. Among them, the average daily output of crude steel in June reached 1.6475 million tons, a record high level. If this daily output level is calculated, it is equivalent to more than 600 million tons of steel produced in the whole year. "It's too scary." The industry estimates that steel production in July is still at a high level. High steel prices rise again unilaterally
Sheng Zhicheng, the information director of the "Nishimoto Shinkansen" steel marketing platform, wrote a "work diary" on August 3, in which he wrote: "The market is hot. …… On weekends, Jiangsu Yonggang took the lead in launching a new phase of ex-factory prices, and the ton price of all construction steel rose by 300 to 400 yuan; Shagang issued a price policy in early August: the ton price of rebar and wire rod rose by 600 yuan and 500 yuan respectively ———The price adjustment exceeded market expectations. Weekend, continued on Monday. Early this morning, the ton price of Jiangsu Yonggang rose again by 300 yuan. This was an expected uptick, but an unexpected one. The mainstream quotations in the spot market also rose wildly. The overall price per ton of rebar rose between 200 yuan and 250 yuan in a single day, and the high line rose by about 300 yuan. ”
According to the observations of some market analysts, the current price situation in the steel market is that the ex-factory prices of steel mills are frequently raised, the market spot price "takes advantage of the momentum to rise", and the futures price "pushes up". In the meantime, the growth in real demand for steel caused by the recovery of the macro economy is the dominant reason. However, we cannot fail to see that the relative easing of market funds brought about by abundant liquidity is also playing a significant role, and the market's "intermediate demand" has more room for speculation. The performance of the steel futures market is also worthy of attention. The 0910 main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to 220 yuan per ton in a single day on July 31, which was sealed on the daily limit. The recent single-day trading volume of steel futures reached nearly 1.6 million lots.